Analyst ups forecast for fresh TLDs, $900MM bookings by 2016

Analyst becomes more bullish on fresh top level domain name potential.

B. Riley analyst Sameet Sinha has increased his forecast for fresh top level domain name registrations following attending the prior week’s ICANN conference in Los Angeles.

Previously, he was calling for regarding 20 million fresh TLD registrations from 2014-2016, now he’s pegging it at 29 million and states that might be conservative. He estimates top line potential of $900 million during this period.

ICANN recently downgraded its forecast for budget purposes for the fiscal year ending June 2015 from 33 million to 15 million; Sinha’s forecast calls for 5.7 million registrations during that period.

My guess is Sinha is closer to the truth, but even his estimates will require increased registration velocity going forward.

Sinha points to a number of factors in his bullishness:

• Awareness is very low now, and can only improve going forward.
• Fresh business models counting vertical integration, premium domain sales, and internet of things create upside.
• Recent private fresh TLD auctions reaching 8 figures raises the bar, and increases valuation of strings.

Sinha maintained his $15 price target on Rightside (NAME). It right now trades for $9.75.