How fast ought to a fresh top level domain name grow?
Without artificial stimulation, a fresh TLD ought to grow slowly.
On this stretch’s podcast I interviewed Jay Daley, the interim CEO of Public Interest Registry (.Org).
We talked briefly regarding the organization’s foray into fresh top level domain names. Daley stated:
“We need to recognize that a fresh gTLD, when it is operated in a good way, will have slow growth, and it will take some many years to get to a sizable size. That is pretty straightforward for when you examine the history of, say, .org or any ccTLD or any of the others.”
He noted that .org started with slow growth until it got traction. Of course, .org was aided by the growth of the web as well.
The discussion got me thinking regarding the current market for fresh top level domain names that were released starting in 2014. A lot of fresh TLD applicants had strong expectations for initial demand. Even PIR’s CEO at the time set a goal of one million .NGO domains. He was smart to not add a timeframe, but that goal seems unlikely to ever be met.
Some domain names have logical upper bounds for the near term. If there are fewer than 15,000 registration in .com that include the word rugby or cricket, you can’t expect .rugby or .cricket to suddenly have more than 15,000 registrations.
When you see domains exceeding your natural expectations, you can usually find a reason. .Cricket actually has regarding 30,000 registrations. Almost all of those were registered at Namecheap or Alpnames, and surely at very low prices. They weren’t registered to create sites regarding cricket.
Even as the number of sites regarding rugby and cricket grow over time, it’s going to be a slow trickle, not a flood.
Looking at all of the fresh TLDs that have topped one million registrations, all of them have essentially purchased registrations. They’ve done this with extreme discounting, giveaways, etc.
That’s not to say that they haven’t done other smart things. .Club markets the heck out of its TLD. At the same time, it heavily discounts them. (Listen to my interview with .Club CEO Colin Campbell to understand how this works.)
The “natural” number of .Club registrations would be quite a bit lower without the discounting programs.
In general, here’s how I expect a fresh TLD to grow:
- Initial bump from zero during sunrise, landrush and the first part of general availability.
- A slow trickle upwards during the first year.
- A drop around the one year anniversary.
- Slow growth from there.
If the growth trend is different, look for a reason.
