ICANN expects 646 fresh TLD applications to be withdrawn

ICANN forecasts 646 applications will be withdrawn, mostly following the initial evaluation period.

66 applications for fresh top level domain names have been withdrawn as of today. For budgeting purposes, ICANN projects that number will explode to 646 ahead of everything is stated and done.

The number was disclosed in ICANN’s proposed operating plan and budget for the 2014 financial year, which begins in July 2013. The number is up from a previously budgeted 545 applications withdrawn.

ICANN expects 105 applications will be withdrawn ahead of they pass through the initial evaluation phase. Applicants get a 70% refund of their $185,000 application fee in this case.

A further 390 applications are projected to be withdrawn following initial evaluation but ahead of string contention resolutions, dispute resolution is completed, or extended evaluation. ICANN is betting that many applicants in contention sets will withdraw as applicants strike deals with each other. These applicants will get a 35% refund.

The forecast shows a further 150 applications withdrawn following string contention resolution, dispute resolution, and extended evaluation. These applicants will get 20% of their money back.

This is a reverse of the prior forecast, which predicted most withdraws would come only following final contention resolution. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if more firms settle their contention sets privately ahead of initial evaluation results are posted.

One application was withdrawn within 21 days of getting a GAC Early Warning. That applicant received an 80% refund.