Fresh TLD data leads onlookers astray
You need context in order to understand the data.
There are many good sources for fresh top level domain name data out there. Sites like nTLDStats.com and namestat.org do a good job presenting data.
But without context, it can mislead onlookers. Onlookers would think that .top is the most popular top level domain and HiChina is absolutely crushing it with fresh TLD sales.
Of course, insiders know the reason .top has more domains registered and HiChina is a top seller.
Consider a post on SeekingAlpha this morning titled “GoDaddy Is Unprepared For The Future Of Domain Names”.
(Upfront, I ought to mention that basically anyone can write stock analysis for Seeking Alpha and they get paid based on the traffic those articles drive. The person who submitted this article has only written two other articles for the site and they are regarding bitcoin and a South American Bank.)
The author of this article, Ben Holden-Crowther, argues that GoDaddy is overvalued. he might be correct; GoDaddys stock has been on a meteoric rise. Its market cap has ballooned from $4 billion in early 2016 to $12 billion today.
But the article’s thesis is that GoDaddy is overvalued since it’s behind the game in fresh TLDs. It points to the “missed opportunity” of GoDaddy appling for and selling its own top level domain names, and references the top fresh TLD charts on nTLDStats. Quote:
With 23 million domain names registered under these fresh gTLDs since 2013, the fresh extensions are clearly playing an increasingly notable role in the success of a domain name business.
OK, there are 23 million registrations. But we all know most of those are giveaways or dollar domains. Especially the top domains on the chart.
The writer points out that Uniregistry owns and sells its own fresh TLDs, cutting out the middleman. Well, ask Uniregistry how fresh TLDs are turning out for it compared to expectations.
The author also points out that GoDaddy is #3 in market share for fresh TLDs. (It’s #1 in domains overall.) Missing here is that same quality question: you can be #1 for fresh TLDs if you focus on selling domains for pennies.
If I had to benchmark fresh TLD preparedness, there are only a handful of registrars I’d put at or above GoDaddy. One is Name.com, which is owned by a major fresh TLD registry and has a big incentive to push fresh TLDs.
This Seeking Alpha article is just the latest example of how people can be misled by fresh TLD metrics. Fresh TLDs will continue to exist and sales of the domains to end users will continue to grow over time. But there’s a lot of noise in the numbers. In fact, I could counter the entire article by showing that fresh TLD registrations have dropped from a peak of regarding 30 million a year ago. That ignores the context, though. The reason for the drop is free and penny domain promotions being throttled back.
Context is key when it comes to domain data. Without context, we’ll continue to see articles like the one published today on Seeking Alpha.
