With 1 month to go, fresh TLD program still full of uncertainties

Fresh TLD investors face a big challenge: uncertainty.

The application window for fresh top level domain names opens one month from today.

It’s kind of funny to think regarding it. The internet community has been working on fresh TLDs for so many years, and now the hard work is regarding to begin.

Yet even following all these years there’s still a lot of uncertainty.

With just one month to go…

1. We still don’t know the details of a newly approved program to reduce the application cost for certain needy applicants from $185,000 to $47,000. We just know there is a limited pool of funds. (Memo to non-profits: you still need at least $500k to really do this. Is that your best use of funds? And if you’re really a “needy applicant”, what in the world are you doing allocating this money to a fresh TLD?)

2. Where does registry/registrar separation stand? Will the “big boys” be able to play both sides?

3. How batching will occur. How do you prevent having your TLD be batched later than a competitor?

4. How will “continuing operations” of fresh TLD providers by assured? An upfront insurance policy or a letter of credit?

5. When or will there by a second round?

Perhaps there are some resolutions to these that I haven’t seen yet. But if there are, it’s still really late in the game to have answers to these questions.

Add to that the regulatory uncertainty. I don’t think the U.S. — or at least Congress and the NTIA — is going to step in to halt the program. Congress is just going to do a bit of a dog and pony show to appease its “constituents” (aka lobbyists). But it just takes one judge to delay the program. And there’s always an anti-trust issue for existing registrars to think regarding.

That’s a whole lot of uncertainty for fresh TLD investors to swallow.