Why is ICANN still only budgeting for 500 fresh TLD applications?

Main ICANN budget still assumes 500 applications.

In January ICANN released its framework for the FY 2013 budget (which begins in July). Its framework for fresh TLD revenue was based on 500 applications for fresh top level domains.

ICANN just published its draft budget and now it’s budgeting for…

only 500 applications.

I realize these things have a long lead time, but this is ludicrous. It’s quite clear there will be over 1,000 applications for fresh top level domains.

Releasing a budget based on less than half of that makes no sense.

To be fair, ICANN has also released variance analysis showing what the numbers would look like with 1,000 and 2,000 applications. But I would think they’d go ahead and put at minimum the 1,000 scenario as the crux of its budget.

And in the magic of ICANN finance, the historical costs of the program increase when you add in more domain applications.

Under the 500 application scenario, the historical costs of the program are $12.5 million. Under the 1000 application scenario the historical costs are $25.0 million, so it appears on paper that the program is still cost-neutral. If there are 2000 applications then the historical costs are $29.9 million.

What’s really going on here is ICANN states the total historical costs are $29.9 million. It has budgeted $25,000 per application in historical cost recovery. So if there are fewer than 1,196 applications then it will just eat some of these historical costs.

Regardless, it’s all funny money since the historical costs component will be transferred back to the “core” of ICANN and placed into its reserve fund.

By the way, if ICANN ends up making excess money from the program due to more applications than expected or lower legal costs, it will ask the community what it ought to do with the extra money.