Here’s what I honestly think regarding fresh top level domain names

I don’t think they’ll change the world, but I don’t wish for them to fail.

I write a lot of stories regarding fresh top level domain names. Some are regarding the good and some are regarding the bad. Sometimes people read one of my positive stories and think I must be a fresh TLD supporter. Others read my stories regarding problems and challenges fresh TLDs will face and think I’m a fresh TLD hater.

So let me set the record straight: I don’t think fresh TLDs are going to radically change the way most people navigate the internet, nor do I hope they all go up in flames.

Let’s back up a little bit.

At one point I was against the rollout of fresh TLDs. That was ahead of the program was approved and the community was still debating if and how to allow a major expansion of top level domain names.

I didn’t like the idea since I thought it could jeopardize ICANN as an institution and get it off track. I also worried that it would open up a can of worms for fresh and unwarranted intellectual property rights protections. In some ways this has happened, although ICANN hasn’t imploded yet.

But now that the program has been approved, hundreds of firms have applied, and domains are being added to the root, there’s no point in worrying regarding something that has by now passed the decision point.

Now shift to today.

Do I want to see fresh TLDs succeed or fail?

I certainly don’t want them, or the businesses that run them, to fail. It’s not my practice of wishing that entrepreneurs’ businesses fail. I consider myself an entrepreneur. I’ve had my share of successes and failures. I spend much of my time cheering on and helping others that are trying to grow a business. I don’t understand why anyone would wish ill will on someone betting their livelihood on a venture.

The only reason I can think that someone would wish for fresh TLDs to fail is out of fear. If you fear that fresh TLDs will destroy your own livelihood, then you might hope that entrepreneurs trying to dethrone your business fail.

In the present case, that would mostly be a .com owner worrying that fresh TLDs will erode the value of your domains. I can certainly understand how, if you think this might happen, you will root against the success of fresh TLDs.

But I don’t have this fear, since I don’t think it’s going to happen. At least any time soon; at least not from this first round of fresh TLDs.

I don’t think the value of .com domains are going to plummet. I even think some of them will go up in value.

I agree with Frank Schilling when he states fresh TLD registrants, for the foreseeable future, will say to themselves “I really ought to get the matching .com, too.” There are some domains that I thought regarding letting expire this year, but decided to renew for another couple years since I think they could be helped by fresh TLDs that match a term in the domains.

In many ways, confusion over top level domain names could drive traffic to .com domains (or whatever is right now dominant in a particular country). It could be a boost for domain parking, which has seen a decline in the number of people typing in domain names for “direct search.”

A year or two from now, I suspect that most fresh TLDs will be measured in tens of thousands, not hundreds of thousands. (I’m not alone, as that’s in the business model of many registries.) Many will struggle to maintain more than 10,000 registrations. Some outliers will take off and be embraced.

Some will view this as a success, others will view it as a failure.

And if .com values are adversely affected by fresh TLDs? Then I’ll tip my hat to those that put up their money and sweat equity to try to disrupt the business, and I’ll find a way to make money from this changed world. I’ll especially applaud the little guys; the handful of people who have bet a substantial part of their own net worth on a highly risky business venture.

Once you remove the fear factor, you can look at fresh TLDs with an open mind. You can look for the opportunities. Whether you think fresh TLDs will succeed or fail, there’s a way to profit from their release. Right now.

So there you go. That’s what I feel regarding fresh TLDs. I hope you keep this in mind when I write regarding the successes, challenges, and failures of the future.