Here’s What Happens to Value of Domains When Fresh gTLDs are Released
My predictions regarding what happens to aftermarket values of domain names when fresh TLDs are released.
In general, domainers are opposed to fresh TLDs. I don’t think this has anything to do with the concept of fresh top level domain names. Following all, many domainers have embraced each fresh TLD as it comes to the market (much to the detriment of our pocketbooks). It has more to do with the baggage (e.g. fresh trademark rules) that are coming along with fresh TLDs.
That stated, I do believe that fresh TLDs will have an affect on the domain name aftermarket. There are many categories that will be affected, counting IDNs, country code domains, etc. But for today let’s just focus on .com, .net/.org, and newer TLDs such as .info, .mobi, et al.
.Com – In the short run, fresh TLDs will cause .com values to increase or stay the same. There will be massive client confusion, just as there is today if you tell someone to go to anything other than a com/net/org address. This will result in more traffic to .com domains, especially those with a corresponding fresh TLD (e.g. Vegas.com, Eco.com). In the very long run, if consumers become accustomed to the idea of paying attention to what’s to the right of the dot, there could be some erosion of .com’s value. But that’s so far off I can’t even imagine when it will be.
.Net/.Org – What regarding some of the other original TLDs, such as .net and .org? .Net has always been a middle ground; a second choice to .com. .Org has a good brand, and it could be enhanced if .org registry PIR gets .org equivalents in IDNs. This is a tough call overall. I don’t think .net values will be helped by fresh TLDs, but I don’t see them plummeting, either. What will be interesting for .org is if a similar, but more specific domain, is released. Consider .charity, restricted only to non-profits. That might steal some attention from .org, which can be registered by anyone.
Newish TLDs – I see no possible way for newer TLDs, such as .info and .biz, to hold their secondary market value as fresh TLDs come to market. Most end users will consider buying a .biz or .info domain name if they can’t get a .com, .net, or possibly even .org. But what if they now can register a .web or .’vertical’ domain name for $10? They’re more likely to do that than plunk down $500 or $1,000 for an by now registered .info. Yes, it’s true that web users will begin to warm up to the idea of something other than .com, but that still doesn’t give the edge to these existing TLDs compared to newer ones. (I write this as someone who does own some .biz and .info domains.)
